Investor's Notebook



Money, Economy, Finance, Fiscal Matters, Mutual Funds



The true costs of very low interest rates
As F.A. Hayek observed, interest rate stimulus interferes with economic calculations, causing managers to invest in projects that would not otherwise appear profitable

The S&P 500 is significantly overvalued again
High profit margins imply poor earnings growth ahead, argues Paul Marson, of Lombard Odier

Yen has edge over gold in battle for supremacy
The Japanese currency is not a sterile asset like gold, which is not really an investment at all – the yen generates a return, says Peter Tasker

Investor reaction to market stress set to change
G3 Government bonds are making way for the emerging markets as the safe haven in times of market crisis says Robert Parker at Credit Suisse

Hungary's situation will worsen before it improves
Potential 'aggressive tightening' could lead to a conflict between the Hungarian government and the central bank, says Lars Christensen at Danske Bank

Economic Outlook: Bernanke view awaited
The Federal Reserve chairman's testimony to Congress, in which he is expected to air his concerns over the strength of the US recovery, is likely to dominate the week's economic announcements

Financials and industrial stocks are on the move
If you want to begin your search for tradeable ideas, start with stocks that will actually move if you get the call right. The options markets think financials and industrials fit that bill, writes Nick Colas at ConvergEx

Cash again the currency of risk-averse investment
Economic concerns and volatility have driven demand for a safe asset

European equities set for boost after robust earnings
A robust second-quarter European earnings season should help pave the way for equity markets to move higher, says Nick Nelson, European equity strategist at UBS

Economy suffers from a shortage of safe assets
Housing bubbles and deteriorating lending standards are symptoms of a much deeper problem, writes Mike Story at Western Asset

Analysis of risk appetite is a fad, not a framework
The formula of market correlation already appears to be breaking down, says David Bloom at HSBC

Leverage crises nature's way of saying 'slow down'
Debt crises are nature's way of telling us to slow down, and policymakers should ignore the signs at their own peril, writes Jamil Baz at GLG Partners

Fund managers go gloomy over growth
Global growth expectations among institutional investors have crashed in the past month, according to the Bank of America–Merrill Lynch monthly survey of fund managers

Debt shuffling will be a self-defeating exercise
European Financial Stability Facility must not repeat the mistakes that led to the financial crisis, writes Satyajit Das

Economic Outlook: Inflation fears for China
Inflation figures dominate the week's economic releases, with June price statistics published in several countries, including the US, the eurozone states and the UK